"LEDs Magazine" website report: At the Strategies in Light conference, Bob Steele, director of Optoelectronics at Strategies Unlimited, published a report on the HB LED device market. The next year, specifically the next five years, backlighting will play a positive role in the development of HB LEDs; and throughout the entire report, the topic is that general lighting applications will become increasingly important. In 2010, LED backlighting dominated the LED market, and the entire high-brightness LED market is expected to surge by 53%.
This Steele report focuses on evaluating the packaged LED market. Overall, the entire LED market will surge 53% to $8.2 billion in 2010; by 2014, it will rise to $20.2 billion at CAGR=30.6%.
In reviewing the major events in the industry in 2009 and the original predictions, Steele stressed that they never realized that the LED market has made such rapid progress. Last year, Strategies Unlimited expects a 5% drop in 2009, but in fact HB LEDs rose by 5% last year. Among them, LED-backlit LCD TV declined in the first quarter of last year, and this situation was reversed in the second half of the year. The logo and display section (the backlight is just one of its squats) rose by 17.5%; Steele predicts that the backlight section will develop too quickly, and soon it will be separated from the display section. In addition, a large number of traditional markets last year, such as the automotive industry, consumers will not be satisfied with the pace.
Among other applications, the general lighting segment contributed the most to the sales of packaged LEDs, with a growth rate of 24%; but Steele pointed out that this part has a lower starting point. Mobile phone applications have the smallest growth rate (2.8%), but it is the largest component of the market for HB LED applications. In the future, the consumer market will turn to smart phones, and this part of the application will play an increasingly important role. When it comes to the LEDs used every day, TV manufacturers initially used such medium-power LEDs, which were also used in the automotive industry at the beginning, and their sales surged by 152%.
Notebook displays and LCD monitors will accelerate the expansion of the backlight market. In 2009, 50% of the notebooks sold in the market used LED backlights, and by 2010, the market share will increase to 80%.
Ordinary lighting will of course become another potential high growth area. Steele believes that the 15% decline in 2009 was mainly due to the downturn in the construction market. Steele plans to have a 32% increase in LED lighting in 2010. In the next five years, new LED lamps will slow down, and the market for alternative lamps for the retrofit market will definitely rise. He predicted that the annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of the LED lighting market will be 44% in the next five years.
Looking ahead, Steele expects the backlight application field to continue to grow. He pointed out that some analysts expect LED backlight TVs to reach 39 million units in 2010, but he believes that 22 million is more reliable. The potential barrier is that the price of LED-backlit TVs is too high and LED supply will be in short supply.
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