1. Human beings are still indifferent to the serious consequences of atmospheric warming.
The gradual warming of the atmosphere is an indisputable fact, but people still have a poor understanding of its seriousness. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 25% in the last 200 years, causing the average temperature of the Earth to rise by 0.5oC (Fig. 1).
And after entering the mid-1980s, the rate of increase is accelerating, which can be said to be mainly China's contribution, because China is already the country with the largest carbon dioxide emissions in the world. In the next few decades, the doubled concentration of carbon dioxide will cause the average temperature of the earth to rise by 3-5 degrees, and the polar regions will rise by 10 degrees. The greenhouse effect will consume 5%-20% of the national economy; the ice layer of the Arctic Ocean is disappearing at a rate of 8% per decade, shrinking 2 million square kilometers within one year, and will disappear completely after 2040, polar bears also Will be extinct. And will also make:
1. Sea level rises 6 meters; in 2050 some coastal cities (such as New York, Shanghai) will be inundated
2. Anomalous climate and increased ocean storms;
3. The land is dry and the desertification area is increasing (Beijing will be desertified);
4. Increased pests and diseases on the earth;
5. The frozen billion-year virus will inspire
In his recent speech, the UN Secretary-General pointed out that the greenhouse effect of the Earth has threatened the survival of mankind, and its threat level is no less than terrorism, because the threat of terrorism is limited to specific countries and regions. If no positive measures are taken, the greenhouse effect It will affect global humans in the near future and has nothing to do with the country. The Kyoto Protocol stipulates that from 2008 to 2012, the greenhouse gas emissions of major industrialized countries will decrease by an average of 5.2% on the basis of 1990, of which the EU will reduce the emissions of six greenhouse gases by 8%. The United States cuts by 7% and Japan by 6%.
The recent international climate talks in Copenhagen want to reach an international agreement including all countries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, but it has evolved into a struggle between rich and rich countries, which the poor countries think is the cause of rich countries, but Poor countries come to eat this bitter fruit. In fact, China's annual carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions have ranked first in the world as early as 2006. We have been arguing in the past that your developed countries have been emitting for hundreds of years, and we have only begun to emit large amounts of emissions in recent decades. But now it is not about discussing the issue of the right to emissions, but how to save the world and all humanity, not to mention that China itself has already suffered enormous threats and losses. The average daily concentration of sulfur dioxide in 62% of cities in China exceeds the national third-level standard. The area of ​​acid rain area in the country has accounted for 30% of the country's land area, and the losses caused by acid rain and sulfur dioxide pollution are more than 110 billion yuan/year. Every year, freezing disasters, typhoon disasters, droughts and even Wenchuan boycotts may be the result of atmospheric warming. Needless to say, seawater in Tianjin, Shanghai, and the Pearl River Delta is likely to invade in the future (the Pearl River Delta has already experienced a drinking water crisis invaded by seawater).
2. Solar energy is the best renewable energy source
70% of China's power generation relies on coal combustion, which emits a large amount of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, which is the primary cause of the greenhouse effect. Therefore, it is imperative to completely change China's energy structure. Everyone knows that the two most important renewable energy sources today are solar energy and wind energy. In fact, wind energy is also a kind of solar energy, and it has a large regional and seasonal, so the most basic is solar energy. Solar energy is the inexhaustible source of renewable energy. The sun's rays illuminate the earth for 40 minutes, which is equivalent to one year of global energy consumption.
The United States has proposed an ambitious plan to provide solar power to provide 69% of US electricity and 35% of its total energy (including transportation) by 2050. If wind, biomass and geothermal energy are also being developed, renewable energy can provide 90% of US electricity and other energy by 2100. In 2008, the installed capacity of solar power in the United States has reached 357,000 kilowatts. In the close-range target, by 2012, renewable energy production will increase to 10% of power generation. In 2012, the installed capacity of solar power in the United States will increase by 16 million kilowatts, which is 5.8 times the annual increase in 2007.
China's National Development and Reform Commission announced the medium and long-term development plan for renewable energy. It is proposed that by 2010, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach 300,000 kilowatts, accounting for only 0.05% of the previous year's thermal power generation. It will reach 1.8 million kilowatts in 2020, and recently plans to increase its capacity plan to 20 million kilowatts in 2020, which is only 3.6% of the previous year's thermal power generation. The actual deployment of solar power facilities in China reached 350 MW (350,000 kW) in 2009, accounting for 5% of the world. However, the production of solar panels produced in China has reached more than 40% of the world. That is to say, 86% of the solar panels produced in China are exported. Because solar power is an emerging industry, and it is still a loss-making industry, it is a planned economy, both Chinese and foreign, and has not yet entered the market economy. If the government does not order, it will not be sold. Therefore, China does not have no solar panel industry, but no solar power industry. The government is not willing to pay the bill.
However, solar power generation was originally a loss-making industry. Now conventional solar power generation is 4 yuan / kWh, and thin film solar power can reach 1 yuan / kWh. Moreover, the government does not have to make great efforts to develop the solar power industry. Let's see where the problem is!
3. It is difficult for China to rapidly develop solar power generation business according to foreign models.
At present, there are two main modes for the rapid development of solar power generation abroad. One is to build large-scale solar power stations in desert areas, and the other is to launch solar roof plans on a large scale. However, neither of these plans is suitable for China's national conditions.
1. Large-scale solar power plants need to occupy a large area, only in desert areas, while most of China's deserts are far from big cities, unlike Las Vegas in the United States, and China's nearest Dunhuang solar power station in Lanzhou is also good. A few hundred kilometers away, not to mention the big cities along the coast.
2. Large-scale solar power plants require great investment, such as another large-scale solar power plant recently signed in Hohhot, with a total power of 20,000 kilowatts, an investment of 1 billion yuan, and completed in 2010 after 10 months. Therefore, the 300,000 kilowatts planned by the National Development and Reform Commission will require 15 billion investment.
3. The fundamental problem is that the technology of large-scale solar power plants is still immature. Now the world's largest solar power station has only 46,000 kilowatts, and there are still a series of problems to be solved. It can be said that all current solar power plants have only exemplary functions, but have not yet had the economic value of large-scale promotion.
Another most successful German solar roof plan is indeed a good way to mobilize people to run solar power. Its basic plan is this. It is funded by individuals to build solar power installations on their roofs. The electricity generated by the state is bought at high prices and returned to the grid. In a few years, the full cost can be recovered. Therefore, California has also proposed the same solar roof plan. Once the plan is completed, California, known as the “Sunshine State,†will receive 3 million kilowatts of clean electricity per year, while reducing emissions of 3 million tons of greenhouse gases, which is equivalent to 1 million cars.
But it is difficult for China to promote this solar roof plan because most of the middle class in China that has the ability to build solar roofs live in high-rise apartments in big cities, most of which do not have their own roofs, and a few richer classes, although Villas, but most of them are not living there for a long time, and it is unlikely to invest in building solar power plants. As for the rural areas, although most farmers have their own roofs, they have the ability to build their own solar water heaters, and it is not possible to build solar power plants.
So, perhaps these reasons can explain why China cannot promote solar photovoltaic power generation on a large scale.
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