Tangled or become the new year of the air-conditioning industry

If you can't rise or fall, does it matter if you want to go up or down? How much more appropriate? Right now, this is a tangled problem for many domestic air-conditioning companies that have entered the cold year ahead of schedule in 2011.

The continuous rise of the domestic market in cold weather in 2010 has made many air-conditioning companies happy and vaguely worried. Is this market size continuable in the cold year of 2011 and continues to rise, and if the market suffers downturns due to unfavorable factors, what will be the overall scale? If the market still maintains a large-scale growth next year, what are the incentives hidden behind this continuous rise? If the forces that sustain the overall growth of the market suffer setbacks, will the domestic air-conditioning industry fall into a new round of decline?

Looking back at the 2010 cold market sales growth, it is not difficult to find that a series of policy factors such as subsidy for energy-saving air-conditioning benefits, subsidy for home appliances to the countryside, and implementation of mandatory air-conditioning energy efficiency policies have been superimposed. The strong rebound, the rapid change of market hotspots from constant frequency to frequency conversion, and the sharp drop in air-conditioning prices have not only directly boosted the unprecedented rise in consumer demand in the current market, but also overdrawn some of the demand in the future market.

Since August of this year, in the cold market layout of 2011 that major domestic air-conditioning companies have started, the enthusiasm and intensity of “draft money delivery” from traditional sales channels have surpassed many companies’ expectations again. Due to the strong sales in the previous market, many air-conditioning channel providers have already been “without food in the warehouse”. In addition, in recent years, the merchants who have earned the “clothes and clothing” have never been short of money, and in response to the favorable cash withdrawal policies introduced by enterprises in the off-season, the “reservoir” function of air-conditioning traditional channel providers has once again demonstrated. Many mainstream air-conditioning business marketing executives revealed that the off-season payment has achieved a substantial increase of nearly 2-5 times compared with the same period last year.

Because the time node for judging and measuring the annual sales scale and overall trend of air conditioners is often in May each year. At present, the temporary channel demand “blowout” still needs to be supported and responded to by the consumer demand in the terminal market. Otherwise, if the “reservoir” of the channel cannot form a good circulation and irrigation and drainage, it will lead to a new round of “market failures”. ".

At present, the policy effect of the development of the domestic air-conditioning market in the cold year of 2011 will be greatly reduced, and the amount of subsidy for energy-saving benefits will be reduced by the end of May next year. At the same time, the property market, which has been subject to pressure and control, is likely to continue to decline in 2011, thus affecting the rigid demand for the air-conditioning market. In addition, the cancellation of policies, fluctuations in raw materials, and increasing brand concentration will accelerate the continued rise in the prices of air conditioners and the intense competition for the phased low-price competition.

However, it is worth mentioning that, in the colder year of 2011, the frequency conversion process in the domestic market will accelerate, which will drive market competition to shift from price to product, from scale to profit, thereby attracting a large number of air-conditioning companies to compete and The direction of development.

In addition, environmental protection refrigerants for air-conditioning use face the transition period from R410a to R290 in 2011, which will directly determine the future replacement process and direction of air-conditioning refrigerants in China, and thus set off a new round of competition for air-conditioning companies. However, under the ambition of market size and interest maximization, the substitution of environmentally friendly refrigerants will remain a long and difficult path to explore.

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