[Source: "High - tech LED - Research and Review " November issue GLII]
As an emerging industry, LED has a huge market prospect. In recent years, it has also attracted various capitals to invest in the LED industry. According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), from 2009 to 2012, the newly-planned investment in the domestic LED industry totaled 580.8 billion yuan.
In terms of investment, the past few years have focused on epitaxial chips, sapphire, packaging and application products. Up to now, the production capacity of all links of the LED industry chain has experienced varying degrees of oversupply.
LED industry investment in the past 4 years
In 2009, the newly planned investment in the mainland LED industry was 62.5 billion yuan. At the same time, this year is also a fast start-up period for the field of LED epitaxial chips in the mainland. Taiwan's chip manufacturers, including Jingyuan Optoelectronics, Yuyuan Optoelectronics, Huaxin Lihua and Huashang Optoelectronics, have invested in epitaxial chip projects in the mainland, including local companies such as Ganzhao Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics, Diyuan Optoelectronics, and Yaweilang. The project investment has been accelerated, and the United States Xu Ming and Hong Kong Zhen Mingli have begun to expand their distribution in the mainland.
In 2010, the LED industry began to enter a frantic investment period, with an annual planned investment of 217.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 249%. The upstream epitaxial chip is still a hot investment field, with an additional planned investment amounting to 136.9 billion yuan, accounting for 63% of the total newly planned investment.
In 2011, the investment fever in the epitaxial chip sector continued, and the market price in the upstream sapphire sector soared to $38 per piece in 2010, causing a crazy investment in capital in this area. The data shows that in 2011, the newly planned investment in the LED sapphire field reached 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%, and the total number of new sapphire projects was 26.
From January to September 2012, the newly planned investment in the LED industry was 79.4 billion yuan, and the estimated planned investment for the whole year was 105.9 billion yuan. From the perspective of investment distribution, this year's LED industry investment hotspots turned into LED lighting. From January to September, the newly added lighting planning investment amounted to 35.5 billion yuan, accounting for 45% of the total investment.
Crazy investment triggers overcapacity
The most obvious overcapacity is in the field of LED epitaxial chips. According to statistics from the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), as of the end of November 2012, the number of domestic MOCVD equipment totaled 909, with an average investment yield of less than 60% and a capacity utilization rate of only 30%. According to demand forecast, the current production capacity can meet the downstream market demand in the next two years.
In the field of LED sapphire substrates, there were 26 new projects in 2011, and the number of new projects in the third quarter of 2012 was 14. At present, the capacity of the sapphire crystal growth project in China is about 100 million pieces per year for a 2-inch sapphire substrate. The actual market demand is only over 10 million pieces. Some of the extension companies are using imported products, so the domestic sapphire substrate is overcapacity. .
In the midstream packaging field, the capacity utilization rate is only 60%.
In the downstream application field, in addition to LED lighting, other mature application fields such as display screens, landscape lighting and indicator lights will not see a significant increase in the future market size. At present, LED lighting has begun to enter the price war stage. The reason is that the number of enterprises entering has increased significantly, the production capacity has increased rapidly, and there has been a period of overcapacity.
Supporting industries become new investment highlights
LED supporting industry mainly includes equipment, materials and other fields, such as solid crystal machine, wire bonding machine, bracket, glue and so on. Due to the small size of the market, domestic supporting industries have not been favored by capital in the past few years. From the investment situation in the past three years, the newly planned investment in the LED supporting industry is 13.5 billion yuan, accounting for less than 5% of the total planned investment.
Among them, in the field of LED package brackets, the localization rate of stents in 2012 was about 30%. At present, there are about 120 domestic stent manufacturers. It is estimated that by 2015, the domestic LED stent market will reach 16.8 billion yuan, and the national production rate is expected to reach 80%. In the field of LED packaging equipment, the market demand in China in 2011 was about 8 billion yuan, while the localization rate was about 30%. It is estimated that the localization rate will reach more than 60% by 2015.
Not only in the field of brackets and packaging equipment, but also driven by the overheated investment in the industry chain and the demand of the downstream lighting market, the scale of the supporting industry market will continue to grow, especially the increase in the proportion of localization, which will bring a bigger market to domestic manufacturers. space. From the current supply and demand situation, some supporting areas are still in a state of balance between supply and demand.
For most small and medium-sized investors with limited financial strength, the supporting industry can become one of the choices for investing in the LED field in 2013.
As an emerging industry, LED has a huge market prospect. In recent years, it has also attracted various capitals to invest in the LED industry. According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), from 2009 to 2012, the newly-planned investment in the domestic LED industry totaled 580.8 billion yuan.
In terms of investment, the past few years have focused on epitaxial chips, sapphire, packaging and application products. Up to now, the production capacity of all links of the LED industry chain has experienced varying degrees of oversupply.
LED industry investment in the past 4 years
In 2009, the newly planned investment in the mainland LED industry was 62.5 billion yuan. At the same time, this year is also a fast start-up period for the field of LED epitaxial chips in the mainland. Taiwan's chip manufacturers, including Jingyuan Optoelectronics, Yuyuan Optoelectronics, Huaxin Lihua and Huashang Optoelectronics, have invested in epitaxial chip projects in the mainland, including local companies such as Ganzhao Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics, Diyuan Optoelectronics, and Yaweilang. The project investment has been accelerated, and the United States Xu Ming and Hong Kong Zhen Mingli have begun to expand their distribution in the mainland.
In 2010, the LED industry began to enter a frantic investment period, with an annual planned investment of 217.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 249%. The upstream epitaxial chip is still a hot investment field, with an additional planned investment amounting to 136.9 billion yuan, accounting for 63% of the total newly planned investment.
In 2011, the investment fever in the epitaxial chip sector continued, and the market price in the upstream sapphire sector soared to $38 per piece in 2010, causing a crazy investment in capital in this area. The data shows that in 2011, the newly planned investment in the LED sapphire field reached 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%, and the total number of new sapphire projects was 26.
From January to September 2012, the newly planned investment in the LED industry was 79.4 billion yuan, and the estimated planned investment for the whole year was 105.9 billion yuan. From the perspective of investment distribution, this year's LED industry investment hotspots turned into LED lighting. From January to September, the newly added lighting planning investment amounted to 35.5 billion yuan, accounting for 45% of the total investment.
Crazy investment triggers overcapacity
The most obvious overcapacity is in the field of LED epitaxial chips. According to statistics from the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), as of the end of November 2012, the number of domestic MOCVD equipment totaled 909, with an average investment yield of less than 60% and a capacity utilization rate of only 30%. According to demand forecast, the current production capacity can meet the downstream market demand in the next two years.
In the field of LED sapphire substrates, there were 26 new projects in 2011, and the number of new projects in the third quarter of 2012 was 14. At present, the capacity of the sapphire crystal growth project in China is about 100 million pieces per year for a 2-inch sapphire substrate. The actual market demand is only over 10 million pieces. Some of the extension companies are using imported products, so the domestic sapphire substrate is overcapacity. .
In the midstream packaging field, the capacity utilization rate is only 60%.
In the downstream application field, in addition to LED lighting, other mature application fields such as display screens, landscape lighting and indicator lights will not see a significant increase in the future market size. At present, LED lighting has begun to enter the price war stage. The reason is that the number of enterprises entering has increased significantly, the production capacity has increased rapidly, and there has been a period of overcapacity.
Supporting industries become new investment highlights
LED supporting industry mainly includes equipment, materials and other fields, such as solid crystal machine, wire bonding machine, bracket, glue and so on. Due to the small size of the market, domestic supporting industries have not been favored by capital in the past few years. From the investment situation in the past three years, the newly planned investment in the LED supporting industry is 13.5 billion yuan, accounting for less than 5% of the total planned investment.
Among them, in the field of LED package brackets, the localization rate of stents in 2012 was about 30%. At present, there are about 120 domestic stent manufacturers. It is estimated that by 2015, the domestic LED stent market will reach 16.8 billion yuan, and the national production rate is expected to reach 80%. In the field of LED packaging equipment, the market demand in China in 2011 was about 8 billion yuan, while the localization rate was about 30%. It is estimated that the localization rate will reach more than 60% by 2015.
Not only in the field of brackets and packaging equipment, but also driven by the overheated investment in the industry chain and the demand of the downstream lighting market, the scale of the supporting industry market will continue to grow, especially the increase in the proportion of localization, which will bring a bigger market to domestic manufacturers. space. From the current supply and demand situation, some supporting areas are still in a state of balance between supply and demand.
For most small and medium-sized investors with limited financial strength, the supporting industry can become one of the choices for investing in the LED field in 2013.
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