CEC: In 2012, electricity supply and demand are still tight and the power gap is 40 million kilowatts.

The China National Electric Power Co., Ltd. released the “National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation in 2011 and Analysis and Forecast in 2012”, stating that the national electricity supply and demand are still tight in 2012, regional, seasonal and seasonal power shortages are more prominent, but the growth rate of electricity will fall back. It is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will be between 8.5% and 10.5%, and the annual electricity consumption will be 5.14 trillion kwh, which may present a "low-to-high-post" distribution.

According to the 2011 power data released in the report, the national total electricity consumption in the country was 4.69 trillion kWh in 2011, an increase of 11.7% over the previous year. The per capita electricity consumption was 3483 kWh, an increase of 351 kWh from the previous year. In the East, Central, West, and Northeast regions, electricity consumption increased by 9.6%, 12.1%, 17.2%, and 7.9%, respectively. Demand for electricity in the Midwest was significantly faster than that in the eastern and northeast regions, and electricity consumption in all provinces in the western region was higher than the growth rate. At the national average level, the province’s major power-producing provinces have reduced the use of electricity in the country.

Since 2010, China’s electricity growth rate has remained at over 10% for the year, 14.6% in 2010, and 11.7% last year. This year CEC’s expected recommendation is 9.5%, which is the first time in recent years. Regarding the reasons for the reduction, the CEC explained that “in 2012, the country’s 'stability for progress' general tone and more effective macroeconomic controls will ensure that the economy maintains a steady and rapid development,” which also reflects each The expectation of the economic slowdown.

At the same time, the report revealed that in 2011, due to the decline in hydropower output, tight supply of power coal, unbalanced power grid structure, and rapid growth in economic and power demand, the country’s electricity supply and demand was generally tight, and power shortages were severe in some regions and periods. A total of 24 provincial power grids across the country have been in short supply, and the maximum power shortage has exceeded 30 million kilowatts.

Regarding whether there will be a shortage of electricity for the past year, the CEC stated that according to the current situation, in 2012, the potential for hydropower to come and go before the flood season is relatively high, and the regional and time-consuming contradictions of the coal are still prominent. The environment is still rather harsh. “A comprehensive balance analysis predicts that the nation’s electricity supply and demand will remain generally tight in 2012, and regional, seasonal, and seasonal power shortages will remain prominent, with a maximum power gap of 30-40 million kilowatts.

However, in terms of total volume, it is estimated that about 85 million kilowatts of new installed capacity will be installed this year, of which, hydropower will increase by about 20 million kilowatts, and thermal power will be newly reduced to 50 million kilowatts. At the end of the year, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation will reach about 1.14 billion kilowatts.

In other words, although the 40 million power gap is higher than the 30 million in 2010, the gap is still only 2.85%, and it still belongs to the normal regional, seasonal and seasonal power shortages.

At the same time, the report also recommended accelerating the EIA approval for hydropower basins and power stations, and as soon as conditions are met, it approves the start of a batch of follow-up hydropower projects, and at the same time accelerates the preparation and approval of nuclear power safety planning, and restores and moderately accelerates nuclear power on the premise of ensuring safety. New project approval.